How to Reduce the Fog Around Growth Planning


I often get asked why is growth so important for a business. My response is if you aren't growing, there are only two other scenarios...you are either stagnant / stable or you are shrinking. What's wrong with stable? It’s okay for a time but long term stable often means you should take a more clinical examination of your business. You may be missing out on opportunities, enabling your competitors or future competitors to score on a breakaway, luring your employees into boredom or lacklustre performance, lacking excitement for customers, or leaving money on the table. So what can be done in these circumstances? Various choices are available. Doing nothing or ignoring the issue is always an alternative but it generally leaves you in fog without a clear path forward.

I often see companies that understand the need for growth decide that they will just “try harder” at the current marketing and sales activity. Sometimes that may work. Sometimes not so well. As a farm kid, trying harder might relate to pushing the combine to go faster causing a greater swath to run thru the pickup....if you don't have the capacity to process the extra load, you either plug the combine up or cause some mechanical breakdown....something has to give. Another issue with simply leveraging off what has worked in the past without re-evaluating is that you may be doing more of a suboptimal activity, missing the mark or pursuing less profitable business. If you wish to invest in growth, you might as well get it right.

The answers are usually in the details. Some of the details may be a bit foggy as your information and data at hand may not be ideal and the future is uncertain. However, digging into the details is usually where sound planning and growth strategies begin. There will always be some fog remaining. However, I have always found that the overall picture emerges if you make the effort and more effective decisions can be made that will provide better peace of mind for managers, executives and owners.

There are many ways to look at growth, but I find one of the most effective ways is to start with a detailed assessment of a company's current products and services. I often describe a reasonable process for assessing growth opportunities and strategy with reference to a Rubik’s Cube. A company’s business can generally be broken down into a number of dimensions – customers, products, services, markets, risks, competitive strengths, trends, internal capability, to name a few. Each of these dimensions form a different cut of your business (like one block of the many blocks in a Rubik’s Cube). All other things being equal, you will want to focus your growth investment in a strategic manner, with specific emphasis on your most profitable customers, products and services in the highest growth markets that are large enough with positive trends, where you have competitive advantage, strong internal capability, manageable risk and your greatest chance of success.

That all sounds pretty simple when you say it real fast. It usually is not so simple to evaluate in reality. It is not uncommon for many companies (even large sophisticated companies) to be challenged to break down their history and their predictions for the future into such dimensions to provide a reasonably clear comparative view of the different parts of their business. Historic performance is sometimes less important that forward projections, although it is most often a useful guide. Many if not most companies pay most attention to measures of ongoing performance in terms of corporate performance (e.g. net income at a total level), as that is how their financial reporting systems are structured and the relevant data for a more clinical examination is simply not tracked into neat little buckets over time. Analysis at a total corporate or consolidated level is usually not granular enough to develop effective growth plans from.

Unfortunately, many managers or owners stop there and resort to what I call “thumbnail growth planning”. This type of planning typically takes the aggregate financial data and marries it up with anecdotal and formal future-oriented data and predictions from available sources to complete a best-efforts growth plan. There is nothing inherently wrong with this approach. It just might not provide the best solutions, when compared with the answers that may pop out if one dug a little deeper in the analysis and stretched the evaluators to complete the allocations, assumptions and estimates to get more specific in the conclusions regarding where and how best to achieve growth.

Some relatively simple example questions might help you understand if your current growth plans are reasonable and sustainable:

  • Do I know which are my most profitable products or services?

  • Can I characterize the depth and breadth of potential growth opportunities across business lines or other dimensions of the company?

  • Am I certain which markets or products / services that my company has a significant competitive advantage?

  • Which specific customers, groups of customers and markets should I focus on for growth?

  • Which parts of my business do I have the internal capability and infrastructure to grow?

  • How do I measure growth currently and should I be measuring it differently in the future?

  • What is my best growth option for my business – organic growth, growth by building or expanding, growth by acquisition?

It is never too late to rethink your growth plan. Growth is the essence of your company’s ability to thrive and survive for the long term. It is also a key component to improving the valuation of your business. I encourage you to ensure you develop and document a growth plan, including all the analysis that goes into it, so that you have the ability to be more purposeful and specific in continually improving it over time.

 

A feature article by Dwayne Coben of Coben Advisory Inc. (www.coben.ca). Coben Advisory is a specialized corporate & executive advisory firm that offers services to help our clients plan, improve, grow and/or exit their businesses.

 

Exit Strategy Dilemma: Should I Stay Or Should I Go… Now?


Common questions I get these days from business owners are “should I sell my business now before things get worse or should I hang in there until things improve? Or is there a reasonable plan C or D involving succession or transfer of the business to my kids or key employees?” These questions usually have a timing (when?) and a structural or process (how?) aspect to them. The questions probably should be expected more often given today's current economic climate coupled with the growing bulge of baby boomer entrepreneurs. The answers to when and how are of course related. The alternatives and potential outcomes often appear obscured at first glance. The “best” answers most always hinge on what does the owner want.

In a beautiful magical Disney world of perfection, the answers to these questions are nicely laid out in a book sprinkled with pixie dust entitled “My Exit and Succession Plan” which sits neatly on the owner’s bedside table…providing for a wonderful peaceful sleep at night. In the real world, however, these answers are most often unknown, unexplored and filled with anxiety and stress for an owner who is consumed with keeping successful business operations on the rails. Research well documents that the majority of business owners that are reaching retirement age in the next 3 – 6 years do not have a plan for when and how they will “leave” their business, monetize or transfer their investment, or retire generally. 

In my experience, the how question is less clear and more hair-pulling for an owner than the when question. A determination of how you wish to exit or transition your business usually precedes the timing question. 

I believe there are often several fundamental and valid reasons for an owner not planning in advance for “leaving”:

  • Too busy right now…will deal with it later

  • Might stir up family or personal issues and requires emotional investment to decide

  • Don't want to admit they don't know and don’t know who to talk to about it with

  • Afraid the value of the business is not enough for their needs

  • Don't want to deal with retirement...or death…or the reality associated with either

I have sometimes asked friends and clients why they have no such plans or plans to develop a plan. What I’m often told is that it is all very complicated and whenever they start to think about it, all the see and hear is NOISE!

So what is the problem with not planning in advance for an exit or a succession? Well the simple answer is that unintended or unexpected bad things might happen due to personal circumstances outside your control, leaving you little or no time to react. Personal circumstances may cause a shortcut to forced retirement or exit (voluntary or involuntary) earlier than expected. These personal circumstances may be the result of sickness, marital issues, new-found preference for retirement, change of heart or any variety of other reasons…including death. “Bad things” might include obtaining a lower value for sale of the business, incurring significant taxes that may have been avoided, finding no successors when needed, or leaving festering family problems for the executor to handle.  

I believe that owning a business while nearing the need for exit or retirement without a plan to do so is like being strapped to the railway tracks watching the oncoming train without the ability to get out of the way. The closer the train gets, the fewer alternatives available and the greater the stress. The decisions do not get any easier with pressure. The consequences of the train are unavoidable at some point. 

Planning doesn’t stop bad things from happening.  It may bring peace of mind, less taxes, higher valuation, reduced stress at time of exit and greater chance of smooth exit and future success. I encourage all business owners especially those nearing retirement to be clear and explicit about their eventual exit and succession plans. If they don't have an expert on the topic in their circle of friends, family or business associates, then I suggest finding an independent trusted advisor to help them. There is no shame in seeking an expert for something critical in your life that you are not familiar with. Even Phil Mickelson has a swing coach. You don't think Phil knows the game of golf better than his swing coach? The reason he has a coach is to be able to see and advise on the things that Phil can't see. 

If you are a business owner nearing retirement or the desire to sell or transition your business and have not planned for that event, you may not feel the straps on your arms and legs holding you to the tracks but they are there nonetheless. I encourage you to develop an exit or succession plan that accommodates your objectives and begin working on what you need to do to so that you are not scrambling last minute. Those objectives may change and your plan may need tweaks or changes. Bad things may still happen but you will be more prepared and may avoid some bad consequences. Good things may happen too. But get off the track! 

 

A feature article by Dwayne Coben of Coben Advisory Inc. (www.coben.ca). Coben Advisory is a specialized corporate & executive advisory firm that offers services to help our clients plan, improve, grow and succeed in or exit their businesses.